After winters marked by minimal snowfall and subsequent periods of severe drought, 2024 appears to be at least partially reversing course. According to the CIMA Foundation, snow water equivalent (SWE) - an indicator that estimates the water stored in the snowpack and thus available in spring and summer - is currently at a deficit of -11% for the Po basin, within the range of what may be normal interannual variability at this stage of the season. Extending the view to the whole of the Italian peninsula, Italy's snowfall deficit at the peak of the winter season is -29%, a figure that shows a marked recovery compared to a month ago, when it was around -64%.
This improvement can be attributed to abundant, above-average rain and snowfall in February, mainly concentrated in the North. While conditions are improving in the North, negative values persist in the Centre, especially on the Adriatic side, and over much of southern Italy. The SWE in the Apennines reflects much worse conditions due to the lack of snowfall in February. The Tiber barely experienced winter and remains at -82%, while the Aterno-Pescara (-86%) and the Sangro (-71%) rivers are in similar conditions.
Despite this recovery, we must continue to monitor the situation, as the recent period has not only been rainy, but also warm. The recent winter was the hottest on record according to ISAC-CNR data, with widespread temperature anomalies across the peninsula, particularly in the North and the Alpine region, with peaks of up to +3.5°C compared to the last decade. This means that snow accumulations may be melting rapidly. Researchers must continue to monitor precipitation and temperature trends, both locally and nationally, to gain a better understanding of the delicate climate balance.
